After watching an NCAA tournament which felt like the most obvious climax since UNLV laid waste to Duke and the rest of the field in 1990, I'm happy that once again we're at the cusp of a basketball session I enjoy more lately, the NBA playoffs.
With an incredible array of teams out west and a very solid top 3 out east, it again promises to be a couple months of really solid action and drama on the court.
Since I cannot possible grasp the obvious path of a Lakers-Cavs final (as a Celtics fan), for now, I will concentrate on first round match-ups and just assume that if I pick LA/CLV now (stupid not too) that evenutally, the wheels will fall off leaving Boston alone to pick up the pieces and repeat in the midst of rubble. Dilusional, I know.
So, onto the picks.
Eastern Conference - Those Starting Saturday
(1) Cleveland vs (8) Detroit
This is the part where I dazzle everyone by saying the Pistons will revert to their form of old, shock the Cavs, and leave me a tizzy as I think about LeBron not cashing in another year. But, sadly, I'm not that stupid. I would really like 'Sheed to play as reckless and maniacal and as solid as he can, but I think he'll be relatively quiet, which basically gives Detroit no shot.
Cleveland's backcourt improvements should really pay off here as I see Mo Williams really handing it to a somewhat struggling Rodney Stuckey (I expected more improvement), Delonte having a solid series, and LeBron dominating all fashions of the game. Prince is a nice defender but nobody is stopping LeBron round one.
As I continue to cling to the chance of the series going longer than 4 games (Detroit did have a good road record this year at 20-21), I smell sweep and the continued dismantling of the Pistons. I think they have a nice core, but this seems to be a situation where we're seeing a snake shed it's skin, but it's right in the middle of that process.
Cleveland 4-1.
(2) Boston v (7) Chicago
I don't think I'm being a Celtics homer yet by picking the Cs here. The Bulls made stark improvements to their team after the trading deadline trade bringing them Salmons and Miller, giving them an additional reliable scorer and a playoff-tested center with passing skills that are unmatched by any big in the series. But I still think they're a trade or two away (Gordon/Heinrich needs to be settled, probably both moved) from being a team that can honestly contend. I think the SG spot is a position the Cs can exploit as I don't think Gordon can guard Allen and if they have to use Kirk, there's a drop in offensive output.
I am so curious to see Tyrus Thomas vs the Cs PFs without Garnett. Even though Erez Buki stole him from me (my fault), he's still a player I follow closely as his potential is just off the charts. His shot blocking abilities honestly could make scoring a bit of a challenge for the Cs, particularly when paired with Noah. My hope (and prediction) is we'll see a lot of physical play and a lot of Paul Pierce free throws which should translate to wins.
Derrick Rose playing Rondo also intrigues us basketball geeks. In three years, I think these two will be the #2 and #3 PG right after CP3 (apologies to Deron W, who will of course be right up there), and seeing this match-up this early in their careers will be a pleasure. Still, home court and experience should pay off leaving the Bullies as not much more than pesky.
Boston 4-1.
Western Conference - Those Starting Saturday
(3) San Antonio v (6) Dallas
I do it every year - bet against the Spurs. Every year I buy into the argument that their too old, too slow, the league has caught up, their opponent provides matchup problems, etc. But then, very frequently, we see Tim D's freakishly consistent game shine through, Tony Parker cut through anything thrown at him, incredible scorers seemingly coming out of nowhere (ManU) and role players lavish in roles (Kerr, Bowen, Horry). I blame my being wrong squarely on the shoulders of Duncan and Pop. I don't get how this guy didn't get the credit deserved before now, even and especially from me. Oh yeah I do - no beard then.
But again, I'm actually expecting the upset and picking Dallas to advance. It seems that injuries and age may have finally caught up to them, with Ginobli out and Duncan ailing. Combine this with the fact that the Mavs seem to be kind of back on track and boast a pretty decent core of Dirk/Howard/Terry/Kidd, I think it's too much for the Spurs to overcome, particularly if Howard continues to play with the flash he showed at season's end, that makes him even stronger. Even when Howard shoots terribly, he still seems to boast a double digit plus-minus to go along with Dirk's perpetual advantage there.
Kidd's improved 3-pt shooting (easier to do when you're wide open and it's part of an offense) and Dampier's fouls should be enough. JCBarrera continues to be my favorite starter-who-knows-he's-only-a-sub-in-sheeps-clothing since Mark Ivaroni (<3>
Dallas 4-2.
(4) Portland v (5) Houston
As someone who has a soul entrenched in Oregon (despite where I might actually live), this is the one, next to the Cs, that is most difficult for me to separate desire and reality. I have faith the Blazers will win, but boy, I think this, along with Atl/Mia will be absolute dog fights at 4/5.
Managing Yao will obviously be the key for Portland to have expectations of advancing and I think they are the team best designed to do so. Having two 7-fters, neither of whom are rails, provides Portland with an advantage most other teams won't have. Combine that with the size and length of LaMarcus Aldridge and even Channing Frye, the Blazes can throw four bigs (and 24 fouls) Yao's way and hopefully will just hammer the red right out of him.
Artest doesn't worry me from Houston's roster, and if he doesn't, nobody should. Houston's prime defensive stoppers (Artest, Battier) don't seem to be able to handle Roy all that well and as long as there's some production from the wing rotation of Outlaw/RudyF/Batum, the Blazers should be able to at worst, outscore the Rockets. Also, as the series gets more and more desperate for the Rockets, expect Ron Artest to try and do more and more offensively (ie ball-handling), which is just fine. He'll make mistake, the Blazers will capitalize, and an implosion could certainly be on the table.
The key is for Portland to win the first two at home. If they can do that, they could end it early. If they don't, I still think they have the resolve to steal home court back and bring it back to rip city for a game 7, which I don't think Roy will let them lose (after early establishment by Aldridge). It's not time for Aldridge to play tortured soul or Oden to play with kid gloves. If you're going to dominate, GO, do it now. Release your inner Bill Russell. I want to see 10-20-10 games. Eat Yao.
I'll go with best case scenario here.
Portland 4-1.
